BCP, Sonae and construction companies were the stars of the stock market in 2025. Exporters suffered from the ‘Trump effect

2025 was a positive year for the Portuguese stock market. But, as always, there are winners and losers. BCP shone once again, the ‘returned’ Teixeira Duarte scored a surprising 700% climb, and Sonae and Mota-Engil shot up more than 70%. The paper sector and Corticeira Amorim stood out negatively.

After closing 2024 with a decline of only 0.3%, the Portuguese stock market returned strongly to gains, rising 29.58% over the last year. Of the 16 companies listed on the PSI, the Lisbon Stock Exchange’s benchmark index, only four closed 2025 in negative territory, and half gained more than 30%.

“The main winners were BCP, Sonae and Mota-Engil, each of which gained more than 50% in 2025”, Pedro Barata points out. The GNB national equity manager also highlights Teixeira Duarte, “which achieved a return of close to 700%, allowing it to join the PSI index in the second half of this year”.

BCP soars 92% to decade highs

BCP, which had already led the gains last year, climbed another 92.86% in 2025 to trade at its highest value in more than a decade, at 89.62 cents. António Seladas, founder of AS Independent Research, attributes the strong performance of the only bank listed on the national stock exchange to the “good environment for banking”. “As a well-known bank manager said a few weeks ago, Portuguese banks must be experiencing their best period in 30 years”, he adds, speaking to ECO.

The analyst also notes “stable growth, falling unemployment and interest rates at acceptable levels”. “To ask for more is a ‘crime'”, he says, noting that the European banking index has gained around 65%. “I also believe that there must have been some rotation of shares from the US to Europe, which was very intense in the first four to six months of the year, with a contraction in the difference between the US and Eurozone multiples and a fall in the dollar. When you buy Europe, you inevitably buy banking”, he points out.

João Queiroz, head of trading at Banco Carregosa, notes that “in a cycle of rates that still allows margins to be generated (even with expectations of a decline), banking was seen as a short-term ‘cash-flow story’: resilient financial margins, risk normalisation and greater confidence in the capital trajectory”.

Sonae climbs 76%

Sonae is another winner on the Portuguese stock market. With gains of 76.37% in 2025, the Azevedo family company recorded the third-best performance on the index. The owner of Continente, which closed the first nine months with historic profits of €200 million, has won the confidence of investors and analysts with the strong performance of the group’s various business units, led by food retail.

“Sonae benefits from the strong dynamism of the domestic economy, particularly in the food segment, which reflects the good environment for domestic consumption, but also the larger number of people, as a result of past immigration policies”, says António Seladas. The analyst highlights “the excellent performance of MC in the food distribution segment, which, as the market leader, is expected to have continued to gain market share in 2025 as a result of its aggressive store opening policy, particularly in the proximity segment, and appears to have been little affected by the new competitor Mercadona”.

Sonae benefits from the strong momentum of the domestic economy, particularly in the food segment, which reflects the favourable environment for domestic consumption, but also the increase in population.

For João Queiroz, the strong stock market performance reflects “the combination of defensive businesses, operational execution and capital discipline, which tends to be rewarded when the market seeks predictability — and in Portugal, this predictability has a ‘premium’ because it is scarce”.

Construction capitalises on major projects

Experiencing a period of significant growth, the construction sector stood out with impressive increases. After years of (almost) no investment, the arrival of major projects and public investment in large-scale infrastructure in Portugal has enabled companies in the sector to strengthen their order books and increase their market value.

While Teixeira Duarte, which returned to the PSI index in September, shot up 705%, Mota-Engil, which has been involved in large-scale projects, shot up 70%, despite the continued attack by funds betting on a fall in shares — there are now five hedge funds with negative positions in the Portuguese construction company’s capital.

Although these companies lead the podium in terms of valuations on the Lisbon stock exchange in 2025, there are other listed companies that stand out with significant gains. Semapa, CTT, REN and Ibersol closed with increases of more than 30%, while the EDP family’s listed companies recovered part of their 2024 declines, with advances of more than 20%.

Corticeira Amorim leads declines for the year

On the other hand, exporters were the companies that suffered the most, penalised by Donald Trump’s policies and the fall in raw material prices.

Corticeira Amorim led the PSI’s biggest decline in the year ending, with a fall of 17.9%. The company led by Ricardo Rios Amorim has been under pressure from the adverse global context, which has had an impact on its results and shares.

In the presentation of the third quarter results, the chairman and CEO highlighted precisely a year that was “more challenging than initially expected” at a global level, in addition to the “transformation of alcohol consumption habits, which is putting increased pressure on the wine sector”. This meant that activity was “affected by this context of high uncertainty and reduced predictability, with an impact on consumption levels and leading our customers to adopt more prudent purchasing policies,” he explained.

Corticeira Amorim was penalised not only by lower wine consumption, particularly red wine, but also by the customs tariffs imposed by the US on wine imports.

The cork company was “penalised not only by lower wine consumption, especially red wine, but also by the customs tariffs imposed by the US on wine imports”, considers Pedro Barata.

“It is a story more related to industrial demand/discretionary consumption (wine, construction/renovation, premium mix)”, explains João Queiroz. For the head of trading at Banco Carregosa, “when growth visibility slows down — or when the market starts to demand clearer quarterly results — the stock loses its ‘safe haven’ status and reverses part of the accumulated premium”.

Paper companies punished by pulp prices

The two paper companies follow on the list of worst performers. Altri and Navigator closed the year with declines of 15.6% and 12.5%, dragged down by Trump’s policies and falling pulp prices.

Pedro Barata, manager of GNB Portugal Ações, points out that pulp prices “were trading at historically low levels”, with a negative impact on the prices of companies in the sector. “Even efficient listed companies suffer if investors anticipate margin compression and/or greater uncertainty in the price cycle. In 2025, the sector was treated more as a ‘commodity with noise’ than as ‘quality at a discount'”, adds João Queiroz.

[In the case of Corticeira, Altri and Navigator], the common denominator is not poor management; it is, above all, sensitivity to the cycle and external variables.

“Corticeira Amorim, Navigator and Altri, as exporters, suffered greatly from the weak dollar, customs barriers, changes in alcohol consumption habits, in the case of Corticeira, and excess pulp capacity in China (Altri and Navigator), as a result of falling timber prices in China (construction crisis), which reduced pulp production costs in China and increased supply”, summarises António Seladas.

For João Queiroz, in the case of these three companies, “the common denominator is not poor management, but rather sensitivity to the cycle and external variables”, he summarises.