Portuguese emigration falls 7.1% and is mostly low-skilled

Last year, 65,000 people left the country, 5,000 fewer than in 2023, representing a 7.1% drop compared to the previous year. This is not just a countercyclical or seasonal trend, but a long-standing structural change that has a clear name: Brexit.

According to the Emigration Observatory, the decrease in the number of emigrants observed in 2024 is due, “above all, to the recessionary effects of Brexit on Portuguese emigration to the United Kingdom, which fell by 37% between 2023 and 2024”.

The figures are striking when put into perspective: the number of Portuguese leaving for the United Kingdom fell from more than 32,000 emigrants in 2015 to less than 3,000 in 2024, according to estimates by the Emigration Observatory in a study published on Thursday to mark International Migrants Day.

“It is the decline in emigration to the United Kingdom that explains much of the decrease in Portuguese emigration”, says Inês Vidigal, executive coordinator of the Emigration Observatory, to ECO, emphasising that, although emigration to other countries has also seen a correction, these are “very small decreases, without much impact”.

The picture that emerges from the data is one of a return to normality. With 65,000 emigrants in 2024, Portugal has returned to figures close to those recorded in the first decade of the 21st century.

A decade ago, during the sovereign debt crisis, more than 120,000 people left the country in 2013. From a historical perspective, today’s figures confirm not a crisis, but a rebalancing.

The Emigration Observatory predicts that, with the almost total collapse of emigration to the United Kingdom – a flow that is “now very small” – Portuguese emigration should “stabilise in the coming years at figures close to the current ones, between 60,000 and 65,000”.

The reconfiguration of destinations is also notable, according to the figures presented. In 2024, Switzerland consolidated its position as the top destination for Portuguese emigrants, with 12,388 arrivals, closely followed by Spain, with 11,332. This is the second consecutive year that Spain has lost its top spot, an indicator of a new dynamic.

According to Inês Vidigal, “in this new phase of Portuguese emigration, Spain and Switzerland have alternated as the main destination: in 2023 and 2024, more Portuguese entered Switzerland than Spain, while in 2021 and 2022, Spain was the main destination”.

France emerges as the third destination, with 7,426 Portuguese entering the country, closely followed by Germany, with 7,410 entries, which “has been increasing steadily since 2018”, points out Inês Vidigal, confirming itself as “a traditional destination for Portuguese emigration”. Complementing this European regional picture, the Benelux countries remain relevant: Belgium recorded 5,471 arrivals, the Netherlands 4,795 and Luxembourg 3,469.

The structure of Portuguese emigration has a very unflattering characteristic: the majority continue to be low-skilled. “Five of the seven main destination countries for Portuguese emigration continue to have a majority of migrants with low educational qualifications: Switzerland, Spain, France, Germany, and Luxembourg”, says Inês Vidigal.

“Contrary to popular belief, the majority of Portuguese emigrants, although more qualified than in the past, are not highly qualified”, adds Rui Pires, a migration sociologist and former coordinator of the Emigration Observatory.

The executive coordinator is even more precise, stating that more than 50% of emigrants are likely to have no more than secondary education. “The data we have for France, for example, which is the country with the largest emigrant population, indicates that in 2021, around 64% of the Portuguese population had only basic education. There are around 600,000 Portuguese living in France”.

There are exceptions, but they point to a clear stratification. “Only in the cases of Belgium and, above all, the Netherlands, is Portuguese emigration today mainly made up of professionals with higher education. The same is true for destinations with less emigration, such as Scandinavian and Anglo-Saxon countries”, says Inês Vidigal. Even so, there is a trend that cannot be ignored, with the researcher pointing out that “around 30% of the Portuguese population that emigrates has higher qualifications”.

The underlying problem, however, is not only the departure of low-skilled people, but also those who arrive. “There are many skilled immigrants who, because they cannot get their qualifications recognised, do low-skilled jobs, which translates into a huge waste of skills needed for the country’s development”, points out Rui Pena Pires.

The expert also highlights another problem in the domestic market. “While Portugal is placing more and more obstacles in the way of immigrants, Portuguese citizens continue to leave in significant numbers for other countries, particularly those in the European Union”, he says, adding that “part of the void left by this emigration, especially when it involves low-skilled workers, opens the door to immigrants who fill the needs of the domestic labour market”.

The picture for 2024 (latest available and still provisional data) is therefore one of emigration in the midst of a complete reconfiguration: Brexit has killed the British illusion, Switzerland and Spain are multiplying the destinations for lower-skilled workers, and Germany and the Benelux countries are gaining weight.

Meanwhile, Portugal faces a double challenge: ensuring that the departure of low-skilled labour does not compromise development, while at the same time receiving immigrants whose skills cannot be adequately recognised and utilised.